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A world in transformation:
World Energy Outlook 2017
The resurgence in oil and gas production from the
United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables
and growing electrification are changing the face of
the global energy system and upending traditional
5 ways of meeting energy demand, according to the
World Energy Outlook 2017. A cleaner and more
diversified energy mix in China is another major driver
of this transformation.
Over the next 25 years, the world’s growing
10 energy needs are met first by renewables and natural
gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the
cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global
energy demand is 30% higher by 2040 — but still
half as much as it would have been without efficiency
15 improvements. The boom years for coal are over — in
the absence of large-scale carbon capture, utilization
and storage (CCUS) — and rising oil demand slows
down but is not reversed before 2040 even as
electric-car sales rise steeply.
20 __ WEO-2017, the International Energy Agency
(IEA)’s flagship publication, finds that over the next
two decades the global energy system is being
reshaped by four major forces: the United States
is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas
25 leader; renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks
to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy
mix is growing; and China’s new economic strategy
takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications
for global energy markets.
30 __ Solar PV is set to lead capacity additions, pushed
by deployment in China and India, meanwhile in the
European Union, wind becomes the leading source of
electricity soon after 2030.
“Solar is forging ahead in global power markets
35 as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity
generation in many places, including China and
India,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
“Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result
of government support and declining battery costs but
40 it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth
for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation
keep pushing demand higher. The US becomes
the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for
decades, which represents a major upheaval for
45 international market dynamics.”
These themes — as well as the future role of
oil and gas in the energy mix, how clean-energy
technologies are deploying, and the need for more
investment in CCUS — were among the key topics
50 discussed by the world’s energy leaders at the IEA’s
2017 Ministerial Meeting in Paris last week.
This year, WEO-2017 includes a special focus on
China, where economic and energy policy changes
underway will have a profound impact on the
55 country’s energy mix, and continue to shape global
trends. A new phase in the country’s development
results in an economy that is less reliant on heavy
industry and coal.
At the same time, a strong emphasis on cleaner
60 energy technologies, in large part to address poor air
quality, is catapulting China to a position as a world
leader in wind, solar, nuclear and electric vehicles and
the source of more than a quarter of projected growth
in natural gas consumption. As demand growth in
65 China slows, other countries continue to push overall
global demand higher – with India accounting for
almost one-third of global growth to 2040.
The shale oil and gas revolution in the United
States continues thanks to the remarkable ability of
70 producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective
way. By the mid-2020s, the United States is projected
to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net
oil exporter by the end of that decade.
This is having a major impact on oil and gas
75 markets, challenging incumbent suppliers and
provoking a major reorientation of global trade flows,
with consumers in Asia accounting for more than
70% of global oil and gas imports by 2040. LNG
from the United States is also accelerating a major
80 structural shift towards a more flexible and globalized
gas market.
WEO-2017 finds it is too early to write the
obituary of oil. Global oil demand continues to grow to
2040, although at a steadily decreasing pace – while
85 fuel efficiency and rising electrification bring a peak in
oil used for passenger cars, even with a doubling of
the car fleet to two billion. But other sectors – namely
petrochemicals, trucks, aviation, and shipping – drive
up oil demand to 105 million barrels a day by 2040.
90 __ While carbon emissions have flattened in recent
years, the report finds that global energy-related CO2
emissions increase slightly by 2040, but at a slower
pace than in last year’s projections. Still, this is far from
enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.
Available at: < https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/november/a-world-in-transformation-world-energy-outlook-2017.html >. Retrieved on: 14 Nov. 2017. Adapted. _